COLORADO SPRINGS“The statistics do not tell the entire story. We may show only a 1.1% drop in the median sales price for all properties, and a slight uptick in active properties, but the real
March Madness, or not?
Dated: April 25 2024
Views: 1615
The Spring rush is off to a slow start as we look at March’s numbers. We begin with no change in values up or down across the medium price range of all properties. Sellers have started to come to the market though with a 13.4% increase in active listings year over and. Despite that inventory hitting, we are down almost 14% on all properties sold. A staggering amount, which places us around 2014 levels. Once again, I beg the question, have we mis-labeled a housing recession as being based only on values? Let’s jump into some other statistics we are seeing in the market both locally and nationally and I will toss in my feelings, even if they are just based on what I am seeing in the local market area.
Our market is heavily affected by interest rates. A few weeks ago, when rates pulled back we saw a good amount of business stir up. The phones began to ring, offers started to come back in, and the local buzz among agents was excited. Until rates spiked, then the reverse happened. Showings slowed, agents tone changes, offers slowed up. The only ones working around this seem to be the new home builders. They are buying rates down, which is helping move some inventory. Nationally, however, builders have cut prices at the fastest rate in 40 years. Even faster than the ’08 recession period. The medium price point is down nearly 20% from the peak of the housing bubble as reported by Reventure Consulting. That drop does not include rate buy-downs which can run an additional 30-40k.
Mortgage demand stalled in March despite the pull back we discussed earlier. Applications to refinance were 9% lower than in the same week one year earlier and home purchase applications were down 16% year over year. Which we can see in our local numbers. The bond market continues to stay elevated, and the FED has moved their stance from 6 rate cuts in 2024, to 3, and now higher forever, may be the new outlook. This would mean very little help is coming to the consumer and would continue to stall out the housing market.
If you are a seller and your house in on the market you can expect longer days on market, and lower buyer demand if the numbers going into April remain the same. Buyers, we know that you are tapped out. Rates have consumer savings at lows not seen in many years. Credit card and other debts continue to rise, and we have not begun to see the damage to the banking system that the commercial real estate world could be. If gold is the indicator of what is going on, then this year looks like more of a bumpy ride than smooth cruising. Gold has continued to hit all-time highs weekly. A hedge against rough times, and a go-to for those looking for stability in unstable times. Let’s see how April goes, but if we don’t see an uptick in sales, I am afraid the 2024 selling season is going to be very difficult.
Patrick Muldoon
I have many interests and hobbies to supplement my busy career in real estate. Although I enjoy my work I also enjoy finding free time to enjoy the most important things in life. This includes being w....
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